It's always been a struggle for economists and statisticians to forecast India's gross domestic product (GDP) correctly, and say where the economy is headed before the official numbers come out. If estimating the GDP is tough, forecasting it in real time is complicated. It involves looking at tens of indicators, such as industrial production, electricity consumption and exports, to arrive at a number.
There's no place like home, but even for the affluent buying one in India is difficult. On top of that, the coronavirus pandemic-now in its eighteenth month-has made life uncertain. A hopeful thing is buying a house looks alluring as loan interest rates fall below 7 per cent, their multi-decadal lows. The slow decline in GDP growth after demonetisation, followed by the economic shock caused by Covid-19 waves, has hurt us unevenly.
Retail sales of cars are back to January 2018 levels in August 2021. Two-wheeler retail sales are 22 per cent lower, nearly four years down the line.
'Many of the non-corporate or smaller entities got wiped out in the ordeal.'
An average Indian spends no more than Rs 1.3 lakh per year, according to official statistics. This is close to what an average Indian earns annually. At this level of per capita income today, one litre of petrol costs one-third of an average Indian's daily income (Delhi prices), making it highly unaffordable. People in most other Asian and emerging countries find it more affordable.
India has placed orders for 786 million doses till date -- less than the probable need of 950 million doses, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
About 150 years ago, in British India, big farmers in the western region of Maharashtra agitated over unfair lending practices and demanded a more fair and inclusive financing structure. People say this is where the seeds of the cooperative movement, now omnipresent in the country, were sown. Today, more than 800,000 cooperative societies thrive in India, with 300 million members, a number close to the population of the United States. Despite a reach this deep--grass roots as they call it--cooperatives do not occupy a lion's share in the Indian economy.
Whenever the Census operation resumes, it will capture the impact of Covid-19 to a large extent, including the extra-lethal second wave, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
The average rate of COVID-19 vaccination in the country has been 10.8 million per week. At that rate, it will take India till December 2024 to complete two billion doses.
This will cost the government Rs 3.1 trillion, about 10 per cent of its annual expenditure, and higher than any other spending item in its Budget.
As India begins vaccinating the younger population, the most vulnerable remain largely unvaccinated.
Three of the four major states delayed testing despite worsening indicators. Only Tamil Nadu quickened the pace after the first signs of deterioration.
As the second wave sweeps through the country, restrictions on movement and public activity are not as strict, even though the caseload and death rate is worse than before, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
To achieve herd immunity, rapid vaccination is the only hope.
While consumers feel that petrol pinches directly, diesel hurts indirectly, as it is an input in almost all the goods and services we use.
Consumers are paying an exorbitant 180 per cent tax on petrol, and 140 per cent on diesel in Delhi and in most other towns in India. Little wonder then that the central government expects a staggering Rs 3.46 trillion by levying excise duties on retail sale of the two fuels this year, and Rs 3.2 trillion the next. States would generally have had reason to cheer, as they command a 41 per cent share in Centre's tax revenues. But as the Centre has raised excise duties in the form of "cess," the revenue proceeds are by nature not shareable with states.
To make possible discretionary spending including capex and that on welfare, the government decided to borrow more than planned in FY21 -- Rs 12.7 trillion.
That's a big change that was made possible due to corporate tax cuts. Corporation tax collection in FY22 will be lower than even the FY18 levels, reports
Overall, small savings have amassed Rs 1.17 trillion from April-September - 26 per cent more than the previous year. But in those six months, the economy lost 24 per cent in the first three months, and is slated to lose 10 per cent in the second quarter.
It is a classic case of extremes: The worst contraction in GDP along with the highest-ever levels of cash in the economy; and a severe dent in consumption together with strong growth in bank deposits and digital payments.
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